By Ebuka Onyekwelu, Ph.D
Nigeria’s apex court, the Supreme Court of Nigeria, on Thursday, delivered two landmark judgments on the leadership of the People’s Democratic Party – PDP, the former ruling political party in Nigeria, from 1999 to 2015. The Court also delivered another important judgment on the leadership of the African Democratic Party – ADC. In PDP’s case, the court summarily dismissed all applications by a faction of the party challenging the Appeal Court’s decision, which nullified the party’s convention held in Ibadan, a city in Southwest Nigeria, after the court had previously stopped the convention. The fact in question can be summarized as follows: a high court nullified the party’s convention held in Ibadan. Thereafter, an Appeal Court nullified the same convention. But this faction of the PDP ignored the judgments and proceeded to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court on Thursday gave its nod to the decision of the two lower courts. In the case of ADC, the Court ruled that David Mark was validly conferred with the leadership of the party. Of these two judgments, the ADC case is already seen as a win for democracy. Yet, this optimism collapses on its own weight because it lacks basic realistic considerations, except that the ADC is only gearing up for opposition at the national scale beyond 2027. In other words, building on the gains of next year’s election, something both the PDP and Labour Party failed to do after their outings in 2023. This is so because the Supreme Court judgment is not a replacement for the job the ADC must do.
The PDP, in its days, often loudly called itself the biggest political party in Africa, and only after 16 years lost national power. Since then, the party has continued to diminish. Between 2015 and 2026, the party moved from controlling over twenty states to barely one or two states, with its former rival, the now ruling All Progressives Congress – APC, being the most beneficiary of the massive exodus from the PDP. The ruling APC now controls over 30 states, which is more than the states the PDP controlled at its peak.
From the judgments, a few things come to light. First, opposition within Nigeria’s political space has lost steam or become basically unattractive. The emerging major opposition political party, African Democratic Congress – ADC, is also fraught with leadership issues, and it is doubtful that the Supreme Court’s decision has settled all grievances among members. Only a few days ago, a faction of the party secured a court order to stop the country’s electoral umpire from recognizing the ADC. About a month ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission – INEC, had derecognized the ADC over a leadership crisis. However, the Supreme Court on Thursday affirmed that the David Mark’s faction of the party is the rightful leadership of the ADC. This decision is notable, but it has not resolved critical leadership and political questions regarding an opposition party that wants to unseat a ruling party where the incumbent is contesting for a second term in office in a democracy like that of Nigeria.
Although Nigerian opposition politicians who were former members of either or both PDP and APC, have largely converged within the ADC, there are doubts that the party can do better in a national election than a formidable PDP as the major opposition political party. However, the PDP is now effectively under the national leadership of Nyesom Wike, who ironically is a serving minister in President Tinubu’s government. This bipartisanship of sorts signals that opposition politics in Nigeria under the aegis of the PDP might have as well been nullified for the time being. Even in the ADC, despite shifts by many Nigerian politicians, only a handful of serving national legislators joined the ADC from other smaller opposition political parties, like the Labour Party and others. No serving governor, even those opposed to the current leadership of the PDP, joined ADC. This attitude of Nigerian politicians demonstrates a remarkable pattern that suggests that Nigerian politicians are tired of playing serious opposition politics or do not consider the ADC as a viable vehicle capable of conveying the seriousness of their ambition. With barely nine months to the General Election, it is not clear if a party struggling with some internal issues can muster a credible opposition against a formidable ruling party.
Partisan politics is not simply a matter of voting or being voted for. Therefore, the dominant thinking within the ADC that the party can mount a feasible opposition by appealing to the people to vote for them against the APC, without the active support of the party by serving state governors, leaves important details out. To discountenance the influence of serving governors on the election processes in Nigeria’s democracy, which is largely driven by money and other considerations, might be unrealistic.
Apparently, this situation has boosted the confidence of the ruling APC, such that despite public complaints and heightened disapproval by some Nigerians, the party is confident of maintaining its dominance of the Nigerian political space. Nigerian democracy cannot be productive without a viable opposition. This is why opposition politicians must think beyond elections and take the time to do serious planning and organizing rather than an ad hoc approach when the election gets close. If opposition figures continue to react or act on their urgency for political power while leaving out a more careful groundwork, followed up by incremental victory over time, Nigeria’s democracy might as well have been indirectly confined to a one-party system where opposition exist without the ambition to put up a competent contest against the ruling party on national scale.
